05
2023
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06
Current situation of metal industry in 2015 and industry outlook in 2016
Author:
After a decade of golden development, the world's non-ferrous metal industry has entered a stage of deep adjustment, and China's non-ferrous metal industry is also facing severe challenges of supply and demand imbalance, market disorder and unreasonable structure. Therefore, accelerating supply-side structural reform is the fundamental way to achieve stable growth, promote transformation, reduce cost and increase efficiency of the industry.
Due to the slowing growth of demand and the continuous expansion of supply, the world non-ferrous metal market has entered a cyclical downward channel since 2012, with the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel and other major non-ferrous metals continuing to decline, and even a precipitous decline in 2015. The changes in market prices have led to the deterioration of the production and operation situation of non-ferrous metal enterprises around the world, resulting in a substantial reduction in profits, increasing losses, obvious contraction of investment, serious shrinkage of assets, and severe winter of industrial development.
China is the world's largest producer and consumer of non-ferrous metals, and its industry is also facing great downward pressure. In 2015, the non-ferrous metal industry as a whole showed imbalance between supply and demand, declining investment, plummeting prices and declining benefits, and faced serious challenges in stabilizing growth.
Although China's non-ferrous metal industry is large in scale, it is generally in the middle and low end of the international industrial chain. The problem of excessive capacity in non-ferrous metal smelting and general processing is prominent. In 2015, despite a significant slowdown in the growth of demand for major non-ferrous metals both at home and abroad and measures taken by some foreign companies to limit or reduce production, China's output continued to grow. The output of ten non-ferrous metals exceeded 50 million tons, nearly half of the world output that year, exacerbating the oversupply. Among them, China's primary aluminum output was about 32 million tons, an increase of more than 10% over the previous year and about 1.5 percentage points higher than the domestic consumption growth in the same period. Refined copper output was about 8 million tons, an increase of about 6 percent over the previous year and about 2 percentage points higher than the growth of domestic consumption in the same period. In addition, copper, aluminum and other major non-ferrous metals are commodities with strong international liquidity. Observing the market supply and demand relationship of these metals requires a global perspective rather than a domestic perspective. In 2015, the US economy turned positive and became an important force driving the growth of global copper and aluminum consumption. However, the proportion of the United States in the world's major non-ferrous metal consumption is far less than that of China. Against the background of limited demand growth in other major consumption regions such as the European Union and Japan, the influence of the growth of American consumption on the market trend is not obvious. Therefore, although LME copper and aluminum inventories continued to decline in 2015, the global supply surplus of major non-ferrous metals remained unchanged.
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